Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer, every weekday. We provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.
Indonesia's, independent anti-corruption, agency has been doing good work. Perhaps too. Good for president Joko Widodo is liking. So he's holding it into the more pliable Civil Service. Further, entrenching the rot. He promised long ago to eradicate.
And as time goes on the geography of vaccine distribution is only growing more unequal that will come with huge economic costs and not just do the country's falling behind our analysts estimates, the global impact of the disparity in jobs and job knots.
First up though.
In Washington today. President, Joe Biden will welcome. Israel's prime minister. Naftali Bennett. It's the first inversion meeting between the leaders since mr. Bennet was sworn-in in June. We expect our conversation to be wide-ranging to cover a range of topics of mutual interest everything from yesterday to meet with senior Administration officials came to extend Goodwill. Israel has no stronger and more reliable allies in the United States of America. You're always with us. You have our back and that matters a lot. I can ensure you that you'll find no friend, which is more reliable and appreciative than us, a sentiment shared by America Secretary of State and Lincoln are two countries working together. Have a very important, very powerful,. Jenda.
And our commitment to that partnership to Israel's security is and always will be unshakable down from the past decade. When the relationship between Israel's prime minister and the Democratic party was more fragile. Both sides seem eager to resent this moment as a reset button eith, the bone and meat like some Stark differences. One reason to expect this meeting to be cordial, is it? It's coming after 12 years of Benjamin Netanyahu. Being the prime minister of Israel. He had a very strong relationship with previous President, Donald Trump, but I still relationships with Democrat presidents in the past, with Bill, Clinton and more recently, with Barack Obama and Michelle Pfeiffer is the economist is real correspondent. And is based in Jerusalem.
Have a better relationship with the new Young prime minister. Naftali Bennett. So this meeting that is likely to be one of a quart of friendly for neither the present or the Prime Minister there is interest right now, in showing any type of Discord, the fact that Bennett is arriving when Biden is under a lot of criticism for his handling of the Afghan tobacco in the scene that we see right now in Kabul could work to Bennett's favorite. Because Israel is now one of the Americas few trustworthy allies in the region and then it will says any Titus up. And I think by then we'll probably also be happy to to show that that relationship at least strong. So the timing is, is, I cannot say about 2 minutes.
But what points of disagreement code to upset that plan for for harmony about the Iranian issue? He hopes to Edge. I did not to rush back to join. The Iranian nuclear agreement has already expressed an interest in rejoining after Trump withdrew from the agreement. So it has become more difficult for the us to do that. Now, that is a different much more Hardline president in terrorem. Where is by the will probably want to press, send it. Also, on the Palestinian issue. The Bible Administration hasn't changed some of Trumps policies. The American Embassy is now based in Jerusalem. They're not going to change that at the same time. This Mission has rolled back some of Trumps policies on the israel-palestine conflict. The Trump peace plan was closed. It back in the day. The deal of the century is no longer on the table, so that maybe some
Bizon will raise in the meeting but their Bennett Coalition, which is very diverse group of properties. Ranging from Israeli rights to the left side. And everybody is well, that's why I'm friends with discovering to do very little, if it wants to stick together. So and it will not be able to promise them. Anything, and what's your view on the on the likelihood given all of these potential sources for attention to these two leaders will work well together? How much reason do they have to expect that they will?
I think that is a good chance that they will, because first of all, the by the ministration really is eager to see the talent competition sticking together. Don't want to see that, anyhow, returning to the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. So I think that they will be very anxious to show it dries out with Nita is very little disagreement between them and it says he wants to get his first high-level diplomatic meeting as prime. Minister has said, he wants to present this to his Riley's back home as a successful meeting. If tensions between Israel and the Palestinians on the ground increase in the next few months, then the us will have to make some tough decisions and that have put some pressure on Israel. The same goes regarding around. If the US find a way to re-engage with it, rain in leadership and re-entered. The nuclear agreement. This will undoubtedly cause sometimes with this route right now. It's hard to predict. If, and when either of those departments will take place.
Putting aside the immediate, the political considerations for for these two leaders. What does oldest tell you about what we can expect from the Biden presidency as far as a broader position toward Israel.
It's worth remembering that the first meeting between the different present. Another prime minister 12 years ago between Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu did not work as plant. Obama spring a surprise on its in the island demanded that Israel immediately freeze on settlement building something with Israel, dead for a while, but it is very little to help the little Palestine diplomatic process. The chances of Biden doing that in his meeting with Ben, as I think a small because unlike Obama, he came to the presidency with very ambitious plan to solve in Israel. I think your body is a much more experienced foreign policy hand and I think that he doesn't need this to stop taking away attention. From the much more burning issues. He and the others have gone East and abroad or covid-19 at home, the Middle East Pacific. It is our finest and company is not high on his agenda. He doesn't really think that he can solve this conflict.
Deleted, so many previous American Presidents. Thanks very much for your time, and she'll thank you. Jason.
For more analysis like this, for our International network of Correspondence. Take out a subscription to the economist get a great introductory deal. At economist.com intelligence offer. The link is in the show.
When Indonesia's president Jokowi Widodo, came to power in 2014. He did so on a wave of optimism and Goodwill Jacoby as he's known was held at home and abroad as a reformer a solution to Indonesia's. Decades-long problem, with corruption and picking his first cabinet, Jacoby spoke of how the process had been done carefully and cautiously in order to select those he described as clean.
Process of an apartment.
Dial a kuchen turn on. Happy happy happy. Happy dance Irma, 7 years later. The Indonesian people have reason to be incredibly disappointed in their presidents cleanup efforts though. It seems a few of them are Mobile. Watchdog Transparency. International said, the country is more corrupt than even Brazil or India. Whether we're talking about the Judiciary, or the Civil Service. The police Parliament, graft is an endemic issue in government. How did that come to beat? Why is corruption such a problem Indonesia?
Who ruled Indonesia for three decades? That was the end of the twentieth century. He built is kleptocracy. So by the time that president suharto was acid from power in the late 1990s. He had amassed, this enormous Fortune some estimated that it was worth 38 billion dollars in 1998. Many of the officials who use the state as a kind of personal piggy bank during the arrows, too hard toe carried on in their jobs, and we couldn't do politicians carry on with these Corrupt Practices to change all that.
Yeah, he absolutely was when he was elected. He promised to protect civil liberties, promote better governance, but within a year of his taking office. There are already signs that and he was regressing to his old authoritarian ways. So under the state has ramped up efforts to suppress fuse that it doesn't like their friends. Since in 2017, the government gave herself the power to disband Civil Society organizations on National Security grounds. It deals harshly with protesters and ordinary citizens, who criticize the government online. And concerningly. Jacoby is eroding checks on his power. He's trying to do away with political opposition. By Prince has been debating the boards of two rival parties to ensure that loyalist actions aren't control. His government has also course opposition politicians with threats of prosecution and a sporting, his re-election. Worst of all,
She is even undermining the organization, which is supposed to tackle corruption. What way, the tackle graphs and it's Bessie dated a bunch of very high-profile people and it's very good at what it does. So, these investigations have resulted in the convictions of over 900 people among them, cabinet ministers, and even the father-in-law of a former president.
In a way, the kpk has been too successful. It's created for itself. A ton of enemies agency has been targeted by police officers, parliamentarians. And now, even by September, the kvk will have been folded into the civil service. So as part of that transition, all staff have had to take entrance tests, but this exam wasn't the standard issue exam. It seems, it was designed to ensure that many of the Katie came Floyds would fail. Many of them did, and dozens of kpk employees, including some of the agency's best investigators have been sacked as a result of this process, but you're elected as a reformer twice. In fact, what do the Indonesian, people think of all this is still, very popular with lots of Indonesians. It's important to know that he doesn't come from the political Elite. Unlike most politicians in Indonesia.
Started his career as a Furniture maker. He's seen has somebody who understands the problems of regular people and he's focused on the economy. He's building in destruction, Indonesia. So desperate need some people see that until like that on occasion. The president does remind voters were more liberal bent of the candidate that they thought they had elected visits. Far-flung regions, which are minorities much more often than its predecessors did when they were figuring out, who to elect in 2019. They look the other candidate for president and they didn't like what they saw. Proposed of ianto. Is it a demagogue accused of committing human rights abuses while he was in the military, the forced to choose between the two? A lot of people want her to Cody. So if he remains popular, even while curtailing freedoms, what does that tell you about that? The future of democracy in Indonesia?
Balance those numbers. You see something troubling signs most engineers and see democracy, not of the system for promoting liberal values by the system for delivering economic benefits, and that's what he's doing. He has brought you, my benefits to Indonesian. Say are getting richer under his presidency as long as that keeps on happening. A lot of invitations won't mind having their political rights from them. Thanks very much for joining us shortly. Thank you. Jason.
The director of the World Health Organization is frustrated. I'm disappointed because so far. 4.8 billion roses have been delivered globally. 75% of that is in 10 countries, 10.
Do you think this is acceptable? We call it box in Injustice on Monday. Dr. Tedros, ghebreyesus called for a two-month moratorium on 3rd vaccine doses against covid-19. So the others can get there first.
Which countries have administered a hundred times as many vaccines as poor ones have going to limits on cash on Supply and on public appetite for them. The latest report from The Economist intelligence unit. Our sister research arm estimates, the global economic costs of that disparity in around 200 countries. And second GDP growth estimates for all of these countries for casting director. If every country around the world managed to Backstage majority of the population by me 2022, what would that mean for the global economy?
After vaccination timelines with ADD 2.3 trillion US dollar to Global GDP by 2025, or if we see the glass half-empty instead, fasten inequitable cost 2.8 trillion per US dollar. And just to put this into perspective. That's roughly the size of a large economy, like friends and unsurprisingly emerging countries will shoulder two-thirds of these losses to emerging economies will will bear the brunt of it. You say on which regions will be at most hits by delayed vaccination timelines. Actually the projected cumulative, losses amount to run 1.7 trillion US dollars in costs in real life picture and send it to her. And Africa will be the worst hit with a hedge of around, 3% of the Region's forecast, GDP in 2020 to 2025.
And of course, vaccine in the quality isn't just a harmful in economic terms, more illness or is Healthcare outcomes because of Braxton any cuisine, but all. So I would say that but seen the creature will reshape the global political and social landscape. First politically, so stressed, because of the lack of vaccines. A lot of people around the world are unhappy with local governments, which are seen as an able to provide vaccine. And also there's a lot of resentment against more developed economies, which are seen as working back seen. Another consequence will be on tourism and travel generally because people who come from unvaccinated Pegasus will be bear from entering vaccinated countries and the other way around, some people from vaccination places like the UK may be hesitant to visit countries that do not have high vaccination rates.
Geopolitically, that's also be a consequence facts in Dickson City from Russia and China will really get a boost from Batman Equity because Russia and China are presenting themselves as the saviors of the emerging. But not presumably enough to get rid of the overall vaccine in equality, among what chance is there. That things will become more Equitable. Vaccines is going to ever be bridged, three options for countries that wants you access oxygen Tester. The first one would be Kovacs 2wa Show. Sponsored initiative to the vaccines to emerging countries, but it really hasn't succeeded in Sharon doses around the world. When you take a look at the data, Kovacs has shipped 210 million jobs so far, Which is far from the gold that curve at set of 1.9 billion. Jobs shift is here and actually 210 million vaccines is only enough to cover fifteen percent.
The population of lower-income economies. The second option is the nation's from wealthier countries, but he's already coming in to pressure from their population. Should you booster jobs and my children, any race donations are falling? Well, short of promises anyway, and finally, the third option is read. The bottom line is that the rich poor divided over access to vaccines will probably widen in the coming months and years. And he fell reshape the world for a long. Of time, but very much for joining us. Thank you.
That's all for this episode of the intelligence that you like us because I'm reading and review and see you back here tomorrow.
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