Good morning from the financial times. Today is Friday October 2nd. And this is your ft news briefing.
The show has been modified from what we published just a few hours ago to reflect news that broke during the middle of the New York night. He was President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump have tested positive for covid-19. Don't start quarantine barely a month before the u.s. Presidential election markets were impacted soon after the news broke futures for the S&P 500 sell more than 1.4% of the time of this recording me while Tokyo's Benchmark topics reversed for earlier gains to drop 1% The story is developing and we'll have more on ft.com as for the rest of today show less stimulus means less income for Americans will have the numbers to European Union could take the UK before the European court of justice + Donald Trump and Joe Biden are competing for the American Midwest in the state of Ohio. My tell is all we need to know about how the rest of the presidential election will shake out.
Filipino here's the news you need to start your daddy.
Democrats and Republicans are still fighting over a new stimulus package and as lawmakers wobble Americans suffer the US Bureau of economic analysis found that us personal income dropped by 2.7% in August. This came after emergency unemployment benefits expired for millions of Americans personal income wasn't the only thing hit American consumption growth fell from July and more people had to dip into their savings Democrats in the White House restarted stimulus talks this week Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said, she was optimistic about a deal but both sides are still working through key differences. Remember that house Democrats pass a 3 trillion dollar plant in May that never got off the ground in the republican-controlled Senate.
Turning to brexit European commission president Ursula Von der leyen said yesterday that the EU was doing the UK the commission has decided to send a letter of notice to the UK government. This is the first step in an infringement procedure. You remember last month a UK introduced in the internal Market bill that would override last year's brexit deal and break International laws that keep the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic open and unmonitored are Brussels reporter Jim brunsden explains that this might not be the last time the EU threatens the UK with legal action. Now this is part and parcel of E-Business. I'm there are hundreds and hundreds of infringing proceedings. Every year to eBay place is full of open cases what you just Trucking along well system continues to apply to the UK now with the UK in his present condition. I don't need to even has a right to notice these kind of procedures before years after their transition. Ends if the infection
Before the end of this year could be a happy ending to this where there is a Troy-Bilt horse Johnson says that radio means they no longer need to be spending commission to be in total Market build are withdrawn and everyone Sunset conversely. That could be very painful out, where the European Parliament on yourself in a situation where you want to do. Anyway, you know the bullets with the UK on this one if you want to be situations, where is a complex array of oxygen to the people fit in the middle of it? That's why she wanted so that really have a choice. Jim Brunson is the Brussels reporter for the ft.
We talked enough about Tuesday's disastrous presidential debate. We haven't talked that much about where it took place Cleveland, Ohio now, Ohio the Midwestern State that's long been considered the Bellwether State and not just politically Ohio is often used to represent the health of American manufacturing and generally the American middle class and why you heard Cutthroat exchanges like this one during the debate guy was asked to bring back Chrysler and General Motors. You brought him back right here in the state of Ohio and Michigan he blew it. They're gone. He blew it and the fact they're gone at the best year. It's ever had last year here to talk about why Ohio is so important as the ft's Washington bureau chief Dimitri satisfy, Philo Dimitri. Ohio is often used as an indicator for the rest of the nation that they literally do product testing in Columbus because it's so representative. How would you describe Ohio's importance to someone, you know, listening outside the US?
Well Ohio's fascinating as you say because it's got a little bit of all of America and and that is why they do tests can a marketing messages and you can Columbus demographic Lee traditionally. It's been kind of closer to the makeup of America. Although that is changing. But you know historically it has been a microcosm. And so if you've been able to win over a majority of Voters in Ohio, that's a pretty good indicator that you're reaching different groups in different Americans and therefore have a higher chance of winning the presidency and that's actually been borne out by history because actually no Republican president has won the White House without winning Ohio on the last Democrat to win the White House without winning, Ohio. You still have to go buy more than six decades to John F Kennedy so you can see that Ohio historically has been pretty much a must-win stays and that's why it's so many presidential candidates spend time in Ohio Trump himself campaign in 2016 on a pledge to bring manufacturing jobs back to
State did Trump live up to his promise to Ohio and he appealed a lot to working-class whites Democrats who worked in factories in manufacturing plant particularly in in eastern, Ohio on the border with Pennsylvania. It was an area that have been hugely Democratic for most of it for decades and Trump came in and he basically won a lot of those voters back and the reason he did was he had this message about jobs on as trade deal such as NAFTA had resulted in jobs leaving the area for China or Mexico Democrats. Haven't done enough to bring jobs back in So Trump was going to fix this for the first three years of his administration manufacturing jobs in Ohio did Rise by more than 2% But actually when you compare it to the national average, Ohio was lacking by couple of points, which was less good, but I think the other thing that's worth.
Kind of reminding listeners is that there's something happened in eastern Ohio. That wasn't just about the economy and jobs there was a kind of a trump had a cultural Affinity a resonance with people there who just looked at him and thought you know something he's not like one of these typical Coastal Elite politicians. You just tells us what we want to hear hook even as the jobs record is not as good as it would have been before the pandemic and I certainly not as good as Trump said it would be he still has a strong level of support and that's something that Joe Biden have to find a way to overcome and to the play about Trump's character appeal to talk about Coastal Elites in and certainly that was kind of the picture that was painted or around Hillary Clinton. Did Joe Biden's it is it is kind of paint himself is a salt-of-the-earth, you know Pennsylvanian and it really makes a question as to whether or not Ohio is again as it has been in the past a swing state, Ohio.
And when Trump beat Clinton by 8 points, which is an 11-point swing from Obama's victory over around me for years before that many political analysts and your state local even National Democrats store. Okay, Ohio is now solidly Republican states. It's no longer swing States in recent months. Biden has actually taken a lead in the polls. Like he's about three points up at the moment over Trump, which shows did it really is back in play on, you know, I wrote a piece recently right talk to a number of local and state Democrats in Ohio, and they all said to me almost without exception Biden is doing very well. He has a shot of beating Trump, but he's not investing and if he wants to be Trump, he really needs to spend money there get on the airwaves digital Alliance all of those things. I want to go back to this point. Ohio being a Bellwether State and can the state of Ohio. Tell us anything about the rest of the Midwest the rest of the country are there any less?
That we can learn here.
I definitely so Ohio, even though Biden is leading in the polls right now. I still think it's fair to say that Ohio is a more conservative State than a number of its going to Northern neighbors. So if you look at the map of America immediately today the west east and south of Ohio. You've got Indiana Kentucky and West Virginia, which is salafi Republican, but if you go a little bit further, North, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, they're similar makeup between that they're all rustbelt industry is very important. And so the feeling is that if Joe Biden is winning over a majority of the voters in Ohio. It's probably because he's winning back a group of white working-class voters who announced Trump Democrats. They had been Democrats most of their life, but when Trump came along they abandon ship and they under $20 Trump Joe Biden is winning back to those voters in, Ohio.
Then there's a very strong case to be made that he's doing the same in the Upper Midwest from Minnesota cross to Michigan. And then also in neighbouring, Pennsylvania, Ohio, you can see it is a almost a must-win States for Donald Trump. If you want a better picture of how things look on the electoral map. We got a really great visualization and breakdown of how the candidates are doing in each state on ft.com will have a link to that in the show notes today Dimitri service ocular. Thank you as always for being with me. Thanks Mark.
Before we go the late Hugh Hefner's brainchild is returning to the public markets Playboy Enterprises that on Thursday. It had secured a cash injection and would return to the public market almost a decade after going private. We're sure that investors will just be reading up on Playboys progress for the articles.
You can read more on all of the stories at ft.com. This is Vineyard left news briefing. Make sure you check back next week for the latest business news.
PFT news briefing is produced by Fiona Simon and me Marc Filipino our editors Dan bobkoff been helping Gavin common, Michael Bruning and Amy, Keen theme song is by metaphor music.
