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Everson on Week 3 Card
Welcome back back QL Daily right here on the back QL Network.
Joe Joe, Joe, Joe, and Hawksford with you on a football Friday, 20 minutes from now.
Contest picks are finalized, show survivor pick for this weekend.
Light events, including props.
We mentioned props.
We have a bunch coming up in Light events.
I have a bunch for this week coming up.
Lighting bets in about 40 minutes right now though.
We go out to the guest line front of the show, Patrick Everson, senior reporter for Vegas
inside our contributor at Fox Sports.
Let's start with this Patrick.
We just heard from Brandon Staley there talking about Justin Herbert getting plenty of rest.
So right now we're sitting seven on the spread, 47 and a half around there for the total.
What have you heard on this?
Do you think we're going to stay here to think we get an adjustment when we find out exactly
what's going on with Herbert before kick off?
Well, first off, Joe and Joe and Aaron, thank you very much for having me on a Friday
I really appreciate it.
Here's, look, this line's been up at most books all week long, but what I think
thought was the most revealing comment that I got this week was from Rex Buyers who formerly
he's been with the super book, he's been with Caesar Sports prior to that, a great deal
of work in the global market if we can say that.
And he's now the head of Wagering for play up.
And what he said is, I'd have no interest in booking the charges game until I know if
the quarterback is playing.
I'm not in the business of playing 50, 50 with the NFL.
And so they haven't had it up a play up all week and what he said was, we won't put this
game up until we know who's playing.
He says, are we still looking like 747 and a half, I apologize it's early here and I haven't
looked at the numbers this morning yet, but if we still look at it basically said, okay,
he said the line and total won't close anywhere near where they are now.
The spread will be 3 points higher or 3 points lower depending on of Herbert plays.
So that's how he feels about it and this guy has been around, he's been in the business
quite a while, doesn't, you know, he has no issue with other books booking it.
A lot of those books have, he just moved on from, sort of, book recently and he's with
one of the newer entities here in the United States, books like B&M GM and so forth and
draft kings and so on that have a lot more liquidity can kind of forward to make that decision
and then see where this all falls, I assume today, but he could even, you know, today,
he could even say, well, he's a game time decision in all and then what do you do?
So, but regardless, what I think would Rex is saying about where this line will end has
little to do with whether you have a lot of liquidity with your book or not, this number
is going to be significantly different once that decision is made.
What about Green Bay Tampa Bay?
We get this one, a lot of eyeballs on it, but here's the thing, another game, we have
a spread and a total on it and the total has actually been climbing because I think
people like wait a second, we're low 40s on Brady and Rogers, but when you look at the
injury reports and I'm sure there's going to be movement, once the final injury reports
come out today, it's not just the books, it's also the packers, once again, a situation
offensive line, why to receive a so many of them dealing with injuries, there's a suspension,
so what are you hearing from people in the betting markets on Packers and Books?
Well, obviously it's the game, it's the game of the week, no question and a couple of
interesting tidbits and then I'll get you some up to pretty up to date splits on that
game as well, but there's a professional better that I've been connecting with every week
through football through the early stages of football season, I'm going to try to connect
with this person every week during football season because it's a pretty smart guy.
Now that said, the sharp guys aren't sharp because they went every single week if they did,
they'd all be millionaires, but the way they go about their business is a lot different
than the way that average folks meet, I don't claim to be sharp at all, I try to have
more fun with this, but he liked the Saints last week against the books, obviously the
Saints didn't get there, he still likes going against Tampa this week, the wide out
core continues to be beat up, off it's wide banged up, he even says, so his Tampa line
is a disaster, Green Bay is the play, he took the Packers out of the gate of plus three,
now obviously you're not getting plus three anymore, so you need to think about that,
just because you hear that there might be sharp play on Green Bay, remember that they got
that they got a much better number, the sharp players did, but that was sharp play all the
way down, plus three, plus two and so on, so you know, the professional guys seem to
think that the Green Bay on the road is the play, or now you do have to stand in front
of Tom Brady, but this is a pretty, pretty banged up team, looking at current splits from
actually from draft games right now, it's two way action, now there's, and there's actually
more tickets on the books, which I don't think you're really surprised anybody, six to
two percent of tickets on the books, but money on the spread is almost dead even, I mean
Tom Brady is still going to be a public play as well, but keep in mind, these are both
public teams here, so they're, I think they're both going to get their share of action,
and there's a lot of time between now and kickoff, this game's going to be heavily
fed into it, it's going to be in a lot of parlaise and money line parlaise and such, so,
you know, and maybe teasing Green Bay up to if they want to go that direction of
Green Bay remains a dog here, thank you so much for joining us, happy Friday, curious,
you're insight in what type of action you're seeing on Niners at Broncos, Jimmy G, back
at the helm, he's all smiles, and also just to follow up on that, the Niners has a dark
course for Super Bowl, if you're seeing any action on that with a wide open NFC.
It's definitely happened, I guess, and thank you Aaron, we'll go with game first and then
move on to futures, I guess, but look, it's an interesting situation, you've got, you know,
a team that lost its quarterback, but everybody is really optimistic about its chances,
and this line jumped the fence early in the week, I mean, it was Denver two and a half early
in the week, and at the outset, and almost immediately, really pretty quickly, it flipped
to the Niners being a short favorite in this game, and some of that was sharp play Aaron,
some of that was Denver's a little bit banged up too, and it's funny, you know, San Francisco
is obviously banged up without its quarterback, but, you know, way that people think is
good, they've got a veteran quarterback who's taken a, who's actually taken a team to
a Super Bowl, taken that team to a Super Bowl, so they're optimistic in that sense, and
I do think it's gone a little farther, you know, look, I'm a Denver Broncos guy because
I'm a Colorado guy, but I do think this has gone a little too far, that said, if you
look at DK splits right now, you got three to one tickets and almost five to one money
on Niners spread, I'm in a point where if you're going to, look, trying to take my
personal bias out of it, and it's huge, but also my personal, because of that personal
bias, I have this personal, like, things are going to go awful for Denver all the time,
I had a really bad feeling about week one, and I was right.
If you're going to give Denver points at home in prime time, I guess, anybody other
than, say, the chiefs, or, you know, a couple of the other top tier teams, the bills,
etc, then I'm going to take those points, I'm going to bet that game, I'm going to
bet Denver is a home dog, I'm Sunday night, if that's the way it's going to go, in fact,
I'll probably, you know, just to make sure it happens, maybe get that locked in today.
It's interesting that it's gone this far, I understand it, and then an air moving
along to Super Bowl, yes, there's a lot short a little bit, Caesar's point out earlier
in the week, I think San Francisco was 25, or maybe 221, moved into 21 in Super Bowl
odds, they're seeing a little bit of money, they're on site, like I know, got a little
bit shorter, there was even a little bit of play, some decent play, and $200 to $1,000,
a $200 to $1 on Jimmy Coroppolo to Win MVP.
So the his odds, I think, shortened all the way into 50 to 1, or something along that
long. So yeah, so there's, you know, well, those are kind of flyer bats, but, but
there's certainly some optimism there that didn't seem to be there with the new quarterback.
So we'll see how far that optimism goes, I'd like that optimism to get a cold those
of reality in the mile high city, but we'll see if that's what happens. Patrick, what
do you see it in here and on the total in the dolphins and the bills get in the side?
It's interesting. This is like the two things that people love, right? The bills, everyone
loves, and how do you not? They're a dominant team for me. Yeah, but then Miami's the hot team,
and then what they just did to Baltimore, I could see a lot of people being on Miami, and
this is the highest total of the weekend, 52, and have put it to divisional game.
They know each other well. What is here on that match? Yeah, again, another, another really
interesting one, and a couple of different angles that I'm looking at in front, and I'll
catch some recent splits on that as well. But I was talking to one of the traders at Windvet,
John Manica, a couple of days back earlier in the week, and what he noted was, you mentioned
the total, Joe, and it opened between 50 and 51 on the look ahead line, and then everybody
saw not only what the bills obviously did to the Titans, just absolutely rolled and put
up a ton of points in the look, phenomenal. But Miami, with 28 points in the fourth quarter,
and two of throwing all those touchdown passes and so forth, so that got as high as 54.
I think it's dialed back a little bit. Again, I haven't checked this morning, but I know
it dialed back by Windset Night, 52 and a half, 53, depending on where you were looking.
But what John said is, I believe most models have this total lower as, again, your point
Joe, is two divisional opponents collide. He said, I wouldn't be surprised if we see this
close lower than the current market. So he wouldn't be surprised if this maybe shifts back
a little bit, but it is a great game, and it could be a ton of scoring in this game if
it's, you know, if Buffalo keeps doing what it's doing, and if Miami is the Miami that
we suddenly saw on the fourth quarter. Now that said, this is all Buffalo, and this is a
multiple sports books. You just can't get people off the Buffalo bills, but I'm looking
at, you know, real time at draft kings on the spread, 80% of tickets, 80% of money on Buffalo.
So that said, the numbers at kind of a dead number. Five is not, is five is not the most
lively number, but it's a ton of, you know, for what's in the pot, and I think I've said this
to the three of you, when I was on last time, keep in mind, where early, I know it's Friday now,
but Sunday is when all the money comes in and closer to kick off as when the money comes in,
some money will come in Saturday, but from the pot that exists, which I'm going to say is not
extensive, it's very heavy tickets in my Buffalo. I don't know that that's going to change much
by Sunday. I just, I just think people want to get on that, if you, unless you have a personal bias
against the bills, you want to get on that Josh Allen bandwagon is fun. I mean, who doesn't want
to root for a team that scores a bunch of points and moves up down the fail?
Yeah, missing the entire secondary. So that's going to be a fun one to monitor.
What's we get the fun on your reports today? With Patrick Everson, senior reporter for Vegas
Insider, also a Fox Sports. This is that QL Daily. I know you've hit on some of the games, but
we can, you can mention them once again. If you're given us a list of sharp action, that you've
seen and obviously numbers move, numbers move here. NFL, and if you want to hit college, anything
that stands out, what's a list of games where you've heard about sharp action?
Right, we'll definitely packers when you can get them at three, and even at two,
when that took some respected play at plus two. That was definitely there. The Coles
believe it or not. And again, I'm not looking at the sports line. Are we still sitting five and a
half there, five and a half, six? Yeah, five. They took some sharp. Yeah, they took some sharp
play. And again, this is from Rex Byers. Great. The guy's a quote machine. He's phenomenal.
You know, he said, this is interesting. I think if you give me one team to win the Super Bowl
right now, I take the cheese. My power rating makes the game cheese six. He said, but there's an
all star team of wise guys on the dog, a plus six and a half and plus six, and that's why it's
five and a half. So the Coles, people, you know, at least the sharp guys, thinking there's going to
be, you know, some bounce back there. So definitely a little bit of sharp play there. I think
there's some, you know, if you jump to the college ranks, maybe a little bit on Maryland any time
that line gets over 17, there's, there's some Maryland money against Michigan. Obviously the
Niners on Sunday night had had some, had some sharp play early there. So just a handful of games
where you're, where you're seeing some sharp activity for sure. Going to college, a couple of
unbeatens in the ACC Clemson at Wake Forest, curious the insights that you have on this one.
Well, it's an interesting game. You got a couple of a couple of unbeatens, I should say, and
I'm scrolling through my article because I know I've got it here, but sometimes I scroll too fast,
Aaron, and I skip right over games, but I know it's in here, so just give me one moment.
Oh, I moved this because I moved the USC game. But yeah, and that's one I'm going to want to talk
about. But it's interesting that you've got two unbeaten teams and you have Clemson coming off
the season it had, which for by Clemson standards was not good, but look, it's still all Clemson.
This is from an update. I did Thursday afternoon from seizures and ticket count on the spread
four to one money on the spread seven to one in favor of Clemson. Again, early money,
not as much in the pot, but this isn't early game tomorrow. So this is going to be settled up.
Then once you get to New Eastern Saturday, everybody's going to be done betting on this,
and I don't think that's going to change much. I still think people are going to be on Clemson
in this one for sure. Very quickly about a minute. You said you wanted to touch on the USC game.
I'm interested in that one because the Oregon State side, it looks like people think they might
have a chance. What are you hearing on this game and seeing? This is interesting because seizures
went out way out on a limb and put this number up at USC 12 and a half lasts Sunday afternoon.
And within a half an hour, it was down to seven. So, and then to six and a half and then to six.
But they got hammered with Oregon State money. As of yesterday, there was more money on Oregon
State spread than any of the 16 NFL week three spreads and Oregon State just took a ton of money.
So, seizures may be in the rare position of actually needing USC in this game with the way it
was bet because of the line, the way they opened and so forth. I think most books are going to need
the home, the home dog Oregon State, but this is going to be interesting. They couldn't end up
meeting USC and better so we're all over Oregon State. Great stuff. Patrick, you're always
always appreciated. Senior Port of Vegas, instead of contributing to Fox Sports, that was Patrick
Everston on the guests on the other side. John Paul finalized contest picks and we finalized our
show survivor pick right here on the bet to you on that work.
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