So right now has the job market finally pictures the question we keep asking ourselves in the last couple of days.
It looks like it's going that way off the latest seek data on job ads while employers are saying it's becoming slightly easier to find stuff.
New Zealand hero business editor at large Liam Danners with me now. Highly him.
So what do we reckon? Let's peak, do we?
Yeah, well, it's pretty subtle stuff, but that's where we've got to be looking right now.
Because I guess what could happen is the economy could shift pretty fast as our interest rates start to bite.
The sort of a tipping point is people start to put their wallet away and the demand comes off.
What we've seen is that this seek jobs data is quite interesting.
You know, the biggest online habitat job advertising site.
And Ben Zeds senior economist Craig Ebert's taking a look at that and he's looked at it for a few months in a row.
It's been coming for his subtly. We've now got a full of 3.9% in 10% of it.
You know, it's still at very elevated levels.
It's still a great time to be looking for a job.
50% north of prepandemic levels.
But the direction of travel is the thing.
And you know, if the forces that were pushing, you know, tighter and tighter have sort of eased,
and it's come to a peak. You're soon going to see them.
You know, the real pressure go on from the higher interest rates and demand coming out of the economy.
And yeah, things could shift pretty fast.
It also comes off the back of a couple of business confidence surveys actually that show just very subtle signs that some of the pressure is easing around them.
What they call capacity pressure. So the ability of businesses to get staff and get, it was for a while there was even getting goods.
But that stuff starting to ease a little bit as well.
So maybe some signs of the change, which I'd call good news except, you know, we've got to get through a big down turn before we get out the other side.
So good news. We're heading into the down turn. Does that sound right?
What's caused it to ease?
Well, I guess you would expect the start seeing some demand come out of the economy, you know, eventually.
As people, you know, the consumer sentiment is pretty low and actually one of the weird things was that demand for retail jobs was still very high and very elevated.
But probably anything to do with property. So that's obviously off, you know, we know house prices are off.
There are some signs that construction is starting to slow and so jobs around the property and construction sector is starting to start into free up a little bit.
Maybe some of the sectors are benefiting from open borders.
You know, we do, there is the opportunity for people to leave, but they are also able to get some workers in now.
So it is subtle, but I just, my sense is that, you know, there's a lot of talk about the reserve bank going further and further, rates going up to, you know, mortgage rates heading 8% and things like that.
Because of the way we come off fixed mortgages in this country, most of that hasn't been felt yet.
So, you know, people can debate how buoyant they think the economy is right now, but it is, it is holding up pretty well and it is still in the slightly sort of false reality.
We still got to take the pain. So to speak, you know, it couldn't, could kick him pretty fast.
Yeah, it really could I, Liam, thank you for that Liam Dan, the Harold's Business Editor at large.